They Destroyed Grandma's Legacy

#FireTheCEO

The complete destruction of Cracker Barrel, documented with facts from public filings

They Killed the Rocking Chair First

Destroying 50 years of heritage for a generic blob

✓ Warm & Inviting

✓ Southern Heritage

✓ 50+ Years of Trust

✗ Generic Fast-Casual

✗ Lost All Character

✗ Customers Revolted

← Drag to see disaster →

The Chart That Says It All

5-Year Total Shareholder Return

The complete destruction of shareholder value

200%

150%

100%

50%

-50%

-100%

-60%

CBRL

Cracker Barrel

DISASTER

+175%

TXRH

Texas Roadhouse

WINNER

+82%

S&P 500

Market Index

NORMAL

What This Means For Your Money

$10,000

invested in CBRL

= $4,000

LOST $6,000

$10,000

invested in TXRH

= $27,500

GAINED $17,500

$10,000

invested in S&P 500

= $18,200

GAINED $8,200

The Board Destroyed 60% While Everyone Else Made Money

Source: 5-Year Total Shareholder Return data from public filings

YTD Return

-1%

Flat while market rallies

[1][2]

3-Year TSR

-65.3%

vs Peers: +20%

[1][2]

5-Year TSR

-60%

vs S&P 500: +82%

[1][2]

Traffic Decline

-19%

Since FY2019

[1][2]

Operating Income Drop

-84%

FY19 to FY24

[1][2]

Op Income FY24

$45.1M

vs FY19: $282.8M

[1][2]

Dividend Cut

-80%

$5.20 → $1.00

[1][2]

Logo Preference Poll

Which logo better represents Cracker Barrel's heritage?

Classic Logo

Warm, inviting, 50+ years of heritage

New Logo

Generic, corporate, customers revolted

1,944 shareholders and customers have voted

95% prefer the classic logo that represented 50 years of heritage

The board ignored this overwhelming feedback

The Record Speaks for Itself

Board plans to spend ~$700M (≈70% of market cap) on remodels

The Board-approved transformation plan includes spending approximately $700 million on store remodels, representing roughly 70% of the company's current market capitalization. This massive capital expenditure comes while operating income has fallen 84% since FY19.

Sources:Biglari Capital Rebuttal Deck 2024Cracker Barrel Deck 10-24-2024

Street skeptical; consensus FY27 far below mgmt guide

Consensus estimates for FY27 Adjusted EBITDA are $241 million, which is 40% lower than management's guidance midpoint of $400 million. Analysts estimate FY27 revenue of $3.6 billion, 8% below management's guidance.

Sources:Biglari Capital Rebuttal Deck 2024

Worst-in-class store-level & operating margins

Cracker Barrel has the worst-in-class adjusted EBITDA margin at 6.1% and operating income margin at 1.3% among peers. Restaurant earnings margin deteriorated by 640 basis points from 2019-2024, the worst performance among all tracked peers.

Sources:Cracker Barrel Deck 10-24-2024

Traffic down 19% since FY19; worst non-Covid year

Guest traffic is down approximately 19% compared to fiscal 2019, with FY24 recording a 5% decline - the worst year in terms of traffic decline since FY10 excluding Covid impact. Management admits 'we've lost some market share, especially at dinner.'

Sources:Cracker Barrel Deck 10-24-2024

$854M capex spent since FY19 while EBITDA collapsed

Despite investing $854 million in capital expenditures since FY19, operating income fell by 84% and adjusted EBITDA declined significantly. The Board approved this spending while operating metrics deteriorated to worst-in-class levels.

Sources:Cracker Barrel Deck 10-24-2024Biglari Capital Rebuttal Deck 2024

Get The Full Picture

Explore detailed analyses of the remodel plan, board accountability, and lessons from similar turnarounds.

Remodel Reality Check →Board Accountability →